The big job report that was just released, is the single largest economic factor on mortgage rates. With this being said, analyzing the movements of rates, we are seeing a surprisingly calm and collected shift.
There most likely would have been a different outcome if these numbers were closer to the median forecast expectations of 223k nonfarm payrolls versus the 215k.
Even with the weak economic outcome, it is consistent with small improvements for the bonds that underlie mortgage rates. The average lender is continuing their conventional 30 year fixed rates at 4.0% on top tier scenarios and marginally smaller closing costs, while some are able to quote 3.875% or are stuck at 4.125%.
Looking back at previous data, mortgage rates have augmented for 3 straight weeks. When looking at anything in the financial market, if something is moving in one direction for a long period of time, there will always be periodic correction. Transferring this into the mortgage industry, we will most likely be seeing some weakness in rates due to all the recent strength.